Municipal elections in Barcelona.
The lack of a real alternative
The city of Barcelona has never experienced onesuch widespread rejection, clear and resounding, like what happens with Ada Colau. But paradoxically, his defeat is not completely assured and, in any case, what is clear is that his governing bloc, which he shares with the PSC of Collboni and the ERC of Maragall, "the institutional opposition", will guarantee the continuity of his work, because they all bet for thesupervilla that destroys the Cerdà plan, the tramway, the reduction of the lanes on the circulation routes and the disorder and insecurity in the functioning of the city. It is only necessary to remember that the person in charge of public safety and deputy mayor, Albert Batlle, belongs to Collboni's candidacy in order to verify thatthere would be no profound changes.
But how is it possible that the refusal in Colau does not translate into significant changes in the position of the electorate? Several factors come into play here. One and main is thelack of alternativeclear and solid, that it is more than simple speculation and that the civic forces of Barcelona revolve around it.
This fact causes a second effect: thehigh abstentionwhich facilitates the militancy of Commons, ERC and socialists to be overrepresented in the vote, because the common and ordinary citizen stays at home. The third factor, closely linked to the first, is the fragmentation of electoral options that further blurs the picture.
In the past, the City Council basically had five options. Socialists, CiU, PSUC, and then IC, PP, and a fifth force that could change and that had minimal representation. It was on more than one occasion, but not always, ERC. Now only in the area of the opposition in Colau there are 8 options, all of them poorly located or with big questions.
Cs is experiencing its umpteenth crisis because after opening expulsion proceedings against Paco Sierra, under the accusation of declaring himself president of the group, now the president Maria Luz Guilarte, who was the mayor of the party, has announced that she is retiring from the City Council and leaving politics.It has little to do, to say the least.
HePP is not the only candidateand the proclaimed renewal of Feijóo will have to wait after the elections. Therefore, the weakness of this option in principle seems assured.
JxCat has his ownhopes in Trias, which is still unfolding the daisy of whether or not it is presented. If he does not, this option will be reduced to the minimum expression in Barcelona, with the handicap that this represents for those who want to be a governing force in Catalonia. And if he presents himself, he could be the catalyst for a more or less strong alternative to the extent that he has the ability not to repeat past mistakes and present himself as the future mayor of all Barcelona residents and not as a spokesman for independence. At the moment it is the only element that can move the stage, and given the uncertainty of his candidacy, everything becomes very foggy.
Vox has no capacityto build the alternative. It is in a corner of the stage and does not grow.
HePDeCAT has neither a candidate nor a partyfor Barcelona. And what's more, he lives in an eternal contradiction of what he says and what he does. On the one hand its president, David Bonvehí, postulates to carry out a new Convergence, but on the other and in an incomprehensible way, the PDeCAT in Madrid, which still has 4 deputies who are paid in gold, gives support in exchange for nothing and in a systematic way to the Sánchez government. Maybe they should explain it.
Center, the party that has not yet succeeded in making itself present in Congress and that has among its deficits the abandonment of what was supposed to be its leader, Àngels Chacón, would like to be able to present Santi Vila as a candidate. It has an interesting option, but first it has to prove that it is a sufficiently consolidated route.
And there are still the personal potions.Sandro Rossell, who is also waiting for what Trias does and what the polls say. If the ex-mayor runs, Rossell will most certainly not do it because they are going for the same electorate. And if he doesn't, his presence isn't guaranteed either if the polls don't initially give him a minimum result that allows him to aspire to more.
There is the case ofDaniel Bosseler. It has its own means and experience because it would be the second attempt. The first one didn't go well and he didn't manage to make it to the council. It seems unlikely that he can aspire to crystallize an alternative, but there are still months to see.
In any case, there is an objective measure that allows us to sort out the chaff now and in the future. For a candidate to have a chance of doing a good job he needs one70% awareness. From here on, its presence has a competitive nature. The further it is from this number, the more random it is that it can be elected. To be a first-line option, it must exceed 80% spontaneous knowledge by citizens. These are difficult numbers to achieve. They only occur if there are big political acronyms behind them, there is a lot of money to spend or that person has repeatedly appeared on television; it is notorious If not, there is little to peel. The reason is simple:only those who know you vote for you. That, plus the vote expectation you may have. From here everything becomes clear.
In any case, what is clear is that Barcelona's defeat of Colau is not enough to get out of the current crisis. He needs onecity alternative, a far-reaching civic coalition, which currently does not exist due to ideological incompatibilities and also because people prefer to be the head of a mouse than the tail of a lion.
